I’m watching the Trump circus from afar here in Cambodia. I am observing a couple of Trump actions in light of my experiences in Cambodia.
First, I have witnessed NGOs that purport to help disadvantaged people. Some of them (not all) spend 20-30% on the people, and 70-80% on themselves. The people, who don’t know the extent of the rip-off, are quite happy that they are receiving at least something. If someone blows the whistle on such finances, the disadvantaged people will cry bloody murder that their benefits are being taken away.
I compare this to Trump’s tax cuts for billionaires. Scott Jennings, Trump’s apologist at CNN, described the first tax cut in clear Trumpian terms: everyone got a tax cut, not just the billionaires. The GOP threw a few crumbs to the hoi-polloi, who were overjoyed that they got something from their great benefactor, and then gave 90% to his billionaire buddies. I suspect something like that will be just as effective this time around.
The other observation is that as a result of Trump’s cut in foreign aid to Cambodia, many children are starving, many people are dying of AIDS, etc. The Cambodian government’s reaction has been, “We’ll have to find funding elsewhere.” Where could ‘elsewhere’ be? How about China, always ready to step in and increase its influence in Cambodia. Cambodians will then applaud the Chinese and despise America.
More and more signs of Cambodia-China unity are seen all over Cambodia
Trump is making enemies of just about every country in the world. It is Trump versus the world. All those African and Asian countries will run into the arms of China or Russia and support anti-American policies. Trump will badmouth Taiwan as corrupt and mismanaged; he will praise President Xi, and China will take Taiwan, knowing that Trump will do nothing.
In fact, Trump has openly espoused the principle that a big country can take what it wants from a smaller country. Russia can take as much of Ukraine as it wants. If Trump can threaten to invade Panama, Greenland, Canada, and Gaza, then what’s to stop one African country, say Rwanda, from taking part of another county, say DRC? Could Thailand or Vietnam take over parts of Cambodia with no objection or action from the USA?
What will happen to me, an American living in Cambodia, if Trump antagonizes Cambodia to the extent that they expel me or cancel my visa? Or perhaps freeze my assets. Or perhaps put my children in cages, the way Trump did. Can Trump destroy the Cambodian economy by putting protective tariffs on Cambodian exports like rice or garments?
Americans are becoming more and more isolationist — why spend money on Ukraine when Americans can’t pay the rent? Trump is upending not just the American order, but the entire world order. I see some big wars on the horizon. Trump will affect everyone in the world, mostly negatively. Smaller countries like Cambodia will have the most to lose, as the bigger countries can invade and take what they want with impunity.