Hamas’ latest actions are consistent with my earlier posts about their motivation.
First, firing rockets at Israel is a message – a show of strength, even though the chances that the rockets do any damage are minimal. Hamas needs such bravado to show the world that it is still a fighting force. As I pointed out earlier, Hamas cannot hope to win the war; the best they can do is to show the world that they continue to stand up to the Israeli bogeyman.
Second, why from Rafah? Just as the original invasion of Israel, firing from Rafah invites Israel to retaliate with full force. If Hamas can provoke Israel into killing 50,000 people in Rafah, maybe that will be the final straw in getting the world to take strong action against Israel.
Everyone thought that Israel would decimate Rafah over a month ago, but they have been dragging their feet due to international pressure. Maybe Hamas figured it was time to taunt them into assault.
So far, the Hamas strategy has failed, in that it has failed to bring in foreign forces against Israel. However, international opinion has really turned against Israel. Witness the fact that more European countries are recognizing the State of Palestine, whatever that means. (There are actually two competing governments for Palestine: Hamas, and the PA on the West Bank.) The latest Israeli strike killing 45 civilians in a refugee camps is causing international outrage. Israel is being charged with genocide.
Israel originally thought there were Hamas commanders in the refugee camp, but later admitted they had made a ‘tragic mistake’. Surely Hamas at one point must have figured out that they don’t NEED their operatives in the camps; all they have to do is make Israel THINK that Hamas operatives are there, and they will wipe out a bunch of civilians, while Hamas can claim “There were no Hamas commanders there; Israel was targeting civilians and refugees.” This is what Victory looks like to Hamas.
Thus, while Hamas has failed to bring in outside force, it is winning the propaganda war. I therefore see no negotiated settlement, which might see the end of Hamas’ control of Gaza. They will be delighted if Israel goes into Rafah and kills thousands of Palestinians in hospitals and schools used as human shields used for Hamas military operations.