I wrote the blog about Hamas’ objectives almost two months ago. In light of recent events, I want to examine how it is turning out. The recent Iranian attempt to bombard Israel is evidence that Hamas is succeeding in its mission to draw the international players into the anti-Israel fight.
But maybe Hamas is failing. Some pundits are suggesting that the Iranian strike was just staged theatre, and that they knew the missiles would be intercepted. That’s very debatable: sending 350 missiles is no joke, and at the very least, is expensive. And suppose just a few of those missiles had hit their target. A major war might have ensued.
I think that Israel made a major mistake by bombing the Iranians in Syria. That was a clear escalation of the conflict to the international arena, and it invited the Iranians to retaliate. UNLESS….. it was all worked out in advance. Israel would bomb Damascus, then Iran would send a message that it is not afraid to attack Israeli soil, to which Israel would send a message that it is not afraid to attack Iranian soil. Messages sent, no damage done.
Whichever scenario is true — fake attacks or real assaults — it would appear that Hamas has lost this round. There has been no all-out war against the cursed Zionists. Moreover, Israel is now seen as the proud defender of its soil against Iran, the primary backer of Hamas. Public opinion — at least partially and temporarily — has shifted to anti-Iran sentiment.
The Battle of Al Shifa Hospital
Next, what about the battle of Al Shifa hospital? It was indeed a major battle for over three days. Who was doing the shooting at the IDF from inside the hospital? The doctors? The patients? No, the battle of Al Shifa proved to the world that Hamas was indeed using the hospital as its military base. Even the official Hamas statement was that “civilians, patients, and displaced people were among the fatalities”. ‘Among’? So they admit that were militants there?
As I had suggested in my February blog, using the hospital for military purposes is an open invitation to Israel to attack the hospital. Hamas once again appears to have won the propaganda battle, as the world is now decrying the deaths of hospital patients, etc. World media is now conveniently forgetting that Al Shifa hospital (and presumably many others) are being used as military centers of operation. Also conveniently forgotten are the facts that the holding of hostages, as well as the use of hospitals for military purposes, are very much against international law.
Rafah
And what about Rafah? Israel promised to launch its offensive before Ramadan, two months ago. Pressure from Biden and from within Israel appear to have forestalled the invasion, but it still might happen. I hope not, for everyone’s sake. Israel could cordon off Rafah and consolidate its gains to the north. Maybe even build a wall, a la Trump, and claim Hamas was paying for it. [All the tunnels under the wall would show how ridiculous it would be, and would also show how the Trump border wall is just as useless at keeping people out.] Hamas controlled territory would be reduced to Rafah, although its tunnels into northern Gaza would remain. If Hamas started firing missiles at Israel from Rafah, then Israel would go in and wipe them out, civilians be damned.
I follow the theatrics of the ‘negotiations’, which are going nowhere. As I pointed out in my first blog, ‘victory’ for Hamas consists only of continuing the war, to show the world that they can hold out against the armed strength of the Israelis. The Hamas ‘proposals’ basically boil down to saying, “OK, Israel, you withdraw all your troops from all of Gaza, allowing Hamas to win the war, in return for which we’ll release some hostages, although we can’t even find most of the ones who are still alive. Meanwhile, we’ll rebuild our tunnels and military to prepare for our next raid into Israel.” That’s not a serious proposal. On the other hand, Israel is saying, “OK Hamas. You release the hostages and we’ll stop the war for a while. Then we’ll start up again, with the added advantage that there will be no more hostages.” That’s not very serious, either.
I’d say that Hamas is on the back foot. If they can’t provoke an international war against Israel, they can either continue fighting or negotiate. They can continue the war in Rafah, at the expense of perhaps 100,000 Palestinian lives, or they can negotiate a settlement in which there will be no more Hamas. Maybe the Palestinian Authority will be allowed to govern, or maybe Israel will occupy Gaza, or maybe there will be a UN Peacekeeping force. Any of these options would be preferable to sacrificing the lives of 100,000 Palestinians, just so Hamas can continue the war.