As the US midterm elections approach, there are more and more cries to impeach Trump once the Democrats gain control. Impeachment is just one of the silly ideas being bandied about, but let’s start with that one.
Impeachment does not mean removal from office. It’s more like an indictment.
Impeachment means nothing in practice. The House votes to impeach, and then the Senate votes to remove the person from office, requiring a 2/3 vote. That will never happen, even if the Democrats control the Senate. Impeachment will not remove Trump, so it becomes meaningless, just like Trump’s first two impeachments. They made a statement, but that’s all.
The other main outcry is to invoke the 25th Amendment, which says that a President can be removed if he is deemed unfit to hold office. How is this done? Here is section 4 of the 25th Amendment:
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
So Congress itself cannot invoke the 25th Amendment. The Vice President must initiate it. J.D. Opportunistic J.D. Vance might just do so if he figures that he will become President. However, you’d also need a majority of the Cabinet: Pete Hegseth?, Kash Patel?, Todd Blanche? No way! The important point is that Congress has no say in invoking the 25th.
I think we can safely assume that Trump cannot be removed legally. How, then, will the next Congress play out?
Even if Democrats control both houses, the Senate usually requires 60 votes to overcome the filibuster. That’s highly unlikely, unless they go through the ‘reconciliation’ process to bring it down to a simple majority for passage. This applies only to mandatory spending bills.
Republicans used reconciliation to pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, which will strip millions of Americans of their health insurance, Medicare, etc. In theory, Democrats could equally use reconciliation to repeal the BBB, but then Trump would just veto it, and his veto could not be overridden.
Congress could vote on de-funding the notorious Ballroom, or the Arch, but No, Congress will not be able to pass any meaningful bills. So what can they do? Couldn’t Trump just veto their actions?
Their most important activity will be the committee oversight process. They can hold hearings on sensitive topics and subpoena witnesses, maybe including Trump himself. A precedent has been set by subpoenaing Bill Clinton to testify, so they have a strong case for hearing Trump. They can certainly call Epstein victims to testify publicly. They can probably bring shed light on Trump’s pay-for-pardon racket.
The House can hold hearings by itself. They have no need for the Senate. Therefore, the outcome of the Senate races is immaterial.
Apart from holding hearings, however, there is little they can do to bring Trump and his cronies to justice. The Department of Justice is still completely beholden to Trump, and they won’t lift a finger to prosecute him, no matter how strong the evidence against him is. By the way, Trump’s subservient DOJ can still stonewall the release of the Epstein files, no matter how much Congress or the courts bluster.
I think that the main way through the legal labyrinths will be to prosecute through state and local courts. For example, a lot of evidence is coming to light about Epstein’s Zorro ranch in New Mexico, so that state government could bring charges.
The advantage to state prosecution is that Trump cannot pardon anyone, especially himself, on state and local convictions. Presidential pardon is reserved for federal crimes.
Look for the next two years to be an endless stream of investigations and hearings. Remember how the Republicans grilled Hillary Clinton over and over again, all to no avail? They even admitted that the purpose of the hearings was to hurt her.
But don’t look for any meaningful legislation to be passed.