The U.S. death toll from the Iran war has held at 13 for the past several weeks. During this period, we have witnessed dramatic videos of Iranian strikes on dozens of American bases, with scenes of utter destruction in flames and smoke. Surely there have been plenty of casualties, but Trump is not reporting them.
Destruction of US bases. No casualties?
Until today. Two, and possibly three more US soldiers have been reported killed in an Iranian attack. Why now? My interpretation is that this announcement has been a trial balloon, to see how the public and the media would react. This would test the waters to see the possible reaction to an American invasion, in which there would be hundreds or even thousands of casualties.
The reaction to the two deaths has been ferocious. Trump will think twice before risking hundreds of casualties. I think that a full escalation must be now considered off the table for now.
A second option would be just to get out and declare victory. This would be a surrender.
Iran gave Trump an offer to save face, by presenting the 14-point MOU. Yes, it would be mostly a surrender, but Trump could claim he forced Iran to the negotiating table and got an agreement. However, public reaction to the MOU was furious. Not only did it not achieve what Obama (Trump’s bête noire) had achieved, but it made Trump and his vulnerable ego look weak. He couldn’t stand that. The MOU could not be adhered to. Trump’s ego will be a total obstacle to any pullback. Thus, any pullback can be considered off Trump’s table.
Let’s not forget Israel. Netanyahu will not allow Trump to stop the war, perhaps because he has incriminating Epstein documents, but more likely, because he wants Trump to keep destroying Iran while Israel sits back and watches.
That opening clause in the MOU was ridiculous. How could Iran and the US sign an agreement that commits Israel and Lebanon to adhere to it while never signing it? Israel just invaded Lebanon, making it impossible for the MOU to hold. That had to be by Iran’s design; it was no accident or stupidity. Iran virtually guaranteed that the MOU could not be enforced.
The third option is more or less to maintain the status quo. The tit-for-tat that has been going on for weeks now could continue indefinitely – months or even years. Trump would maintain his cycle of threatening total destruction of Iran one day, followed a few days later by announcements that Iran is begging to make a deal. This has been going on for weeks now, and you’d think oil markets and stock markets would be wise to this trick by now, but no, they continue to play Trump’s game. Trump and his cronies can continue to make huge profits from the prolongation of the status quo.
One problem with the status quo, however, is that global oil reserves are running out. There will soon be shortages of everything and huge inflation. Can Trump survive the outrage at sky-high prices of gasoline, fertilizer, and hundreds of other consumer goods?
Trump’s approval ratings have held steady around 40% for the past few weeks, according to the average of polls followed by RealClearPolling. This is largely because releasing oil reserves has kept prices down. This situation is about to end, as reserves run out.
In short, a large invasion of Iran would be condemned by everyone, while a capitulation will make Trump’s ego look weak. The only remaining option is to continue the status quo.